These are my predictions in each category for the 96th Academy Awards as well as my thoughts and reactions to the nominations. Just a little disclaimer, I have not seen every nominated film, but these are my educated predictions. as of 3-9-24.
Oscar Predictions
Best Picture: Oppenheimer Best Directing: Christopher Nolan
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone Best Actor: Cillian Murphy
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall Best Adapted Screenplay: Barbie
Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design: Poor Things Best Production Design: Barbie
Best Documentary Feature: Four Daughters Best Documentary Short: The Barber of Little Rock
Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Poor Things
Best Animated Short: Letter to a Pig Best Original Score: Oppenheimer
Best Sound: Oppenheimer Best Visual Effects: The Creator
Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Thoughts
I’m just as shocked about Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig not being nominated for Acting/Directing for Barbie. There has been a lot of talk about “snubs” lately. It made me do some reflecting and I kind of have an issue with that word. “Snub” has typically been the word used to describe someone who was robbed of a nomination. I’ve been reading some op-eds on the subject and I think it was Whoopi Goldberg who said that there are no snubs. Nobody is guaranteed a nomination. I think in our culture, the word “snub,” as it relates to awards season, has morphed into being the word used to describe when a potential nominee, who is considered a lock, does not get nominated. I get deep into awards season, but at the end of the day, this is all subjective. I would have loved to see Margot Robbie nominated, but I haven’t seen the performances of Annette Benning, Sandra Huller, or Emma Stone (yet), so I can’t definitively say that Robbie deserved a nomination over either of those actresses. Same with directing. I would have loved to see Gerwig nominated, but once again, I have not seen Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things, or The Zone of Interest. I can’t say that those nominees were not deserving.
For the Best Actor category, I think it went as expected. The only surprise to me was that Leonardo DiCaprio was not nominated for Killers of the Flower Moon. With only five slots, I think it would be fair to say that Cooper, Giamatti, Murphy, and Wright were locks. A lot of pundits were seeing who would get that fifth slot. The consensus was that it was between DiCaprio and Colman Domingo for Rustin. Ultimately, the Screen Actors Guild nominations correctly predicted that Domingo would come out ahead. I have no complaints about Domingo. The only complaint I have would be about the movie itself. I will say that I had never even heard of Rustin, the man who helped MLK plan the march on Washington, so I feel the film was important in that regard. However, I believe this is a prime example of a biopic where the lead performance is better than the movie itself (Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody and Bryan Cranston in Trumbo come to mind). Flower Moon was one of my two favorite movies of the year, so I would have loved to see DiCaprio get a nomination, but I understand that there are only so many available slots.
For the Supporting Actor category, there were for sure a couple of surprises. Sterling K. Brown was the biggest surprise for me. He did secure a SAG nomination, but I wasn’t 100% sure he would get a nomination. Coming in late in the game, he was for sure a dark horse nominee. That being said, he was good in American Fiction. I didn’t walk away thinking it was a revelatory performance, but he was good. I also have mixed feelings about De Niro. De Niro is a terrific (and legendary) actor, but I don’t think his performance in Flower Moon was that great. It wasn’t bad by any means, but of the three leads, I thought his performance was the weakest. The last thing I will say in this category is that I would have loved for Charles Melton to have been nominated. I did not like May December. It was a weird and unsettling movie, however, I was taken aback by Charles Melton. Playing the victim/husband of Julianne Moore’s Mary Kay Letourneau-inspired character, Melton was the soul of this movie. His performance was heartbreaking. Unlike Sterling K. Brown, I did walk away from this movie thinking his performance was revelatory. It was also amazing to me that this actor who I had never even heard of (Turns out he was on Riverdale, which I never watched), was more than capable of holding his own against Moore and Natalie Portman. When the film premiered, Melton was getting all of the buzz. He received nominations for the Independent Spirit Award and Golden Globe Award, yet missed out on SAG and Oscars. It just goes to show how popularity wanes and anything can happen.
For Supporting Actress, I thought America Ferrera’s nomination was a nice surprise, as she was a dark horse nominee. Unfortunately, I think this recognition was glossed over by many who were complaining about the perceived snub of Robbie and Gerwig. I’m not surprised she got the nomination, but I was surprised to see Emily Blunt get all the love she has gotten. I wasn’t a huge fan of Oppenheimer, but I don’t think her performance was that special. I think she is a terrific actor, but this should not have been her first nominated performance. Where was this love for Sicario?
For the Adapted Screenplay, I think Barbie will win. To me, there’s no question. At least Gerwig will get an Oscar for writing. Even if the Academy did not find her directing up to par, the script has been showered with well-deserved praise. I also believe that had the film been nominated in the original category like the filmmakers wanted, it would still win. The script is that powerful. I also thought it was interesting how Oppenheimer was nominated in this category but Flower Moon wasn’t. As acclaimed as Oppenheimer is, I don’t think I have heard anyone mention the quality of the script. Just an observation.
For Original Screenplay, my choice is Anatomy of a Fall. I would have preferred The Holdovers because it is not only a strong script but also because it was my favorite film of the year. In fact, it was my pick for the longest time. It’s only as I publish this post, that I changed my pick. Based on prior awards shows, I think Anatomy of a Fall will take the prize. I could see a surprise win for Past Lives, but it seems unlikely. For the other nominees, I think May December and Maestro are DOA.
The toughest categories for me to predict this year were Costume Design and Production Design. Each film is more than deserving of a trophy. To make things more difficult, the same five films are nominated in both categories. The nominated films are Barbie, Poor Things, Oppenheimer, Napoleon, and Killers of the Flower Moon. I guess we will see what happens.