Here are my thoughts, initial reactions, and predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. After reflecting on the nominations for a few days, I am compiling this post on 1-26-26. Overall, there weren’t too many curveballs (although there were a few). There’s some excitement in the air. Of course, we all know that Sinners made history with a record-setting sixteen nominations, breaking a 75-year-old record set in 1951 with All About Eve. The latter film earned 14 nominations, a record later tied by Titanic and La La Land. Never would I have imagined the film that would break the record was a historical fiction and vampire film released in March. Plus, this year offers a new category: best casting, and the 100th ceremony will introduce another: best stunt work.
I will go through all the categories and break them into three subcategories: Prediction, Preference, and Thoughts. In some categories, I will have more to speak about than others. As we get into short films and similar categories, I won’t have much to say. Before I begin, I want to issue a formal spoiler alert. Let’s get started.
Best Picture
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Preference: One Battle After Another
Thoughts: One Battle was my favorite film of the last year. It won the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Comedy), giving it some momentum. Plus, I do believe Paul Thomas Anderson’s time has come. After making consistently great films for nearly 30 years, Anderson finally has a film that could go all the way. It reminds me of Christopher Nolan with Oppenheimer a couple of years ago. He just needed the project that fired on all cylinders. I would argue he and There Will Be Blood came close in 2008, but couldn’t beat the Coen Brothers and No Country for Old Men. Sinners (and, to a lesser extent, Hamnet) may challenge One Battle, but I believe PTA and his film will emerge victorious. I do have to say, the inclusion of F1 did surprise me. I enjoyed the film, and it was a relatively simple story of redemption, but the technical achievements outweighed the story. It was made by the director and producer of Top Gun: Maverick (which got into Best Picture) and Plan B (Brad Pitt’s production company), which won Best Picture Oscars for Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Preference: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Thoughts: This was a tough category to decide upon. Truthfully, I would be okay if just about anybody from this category won. If Chalamet wins, I will be happy. It’s a powerhouse performance, and it would be a solid win, but I feel like Chalamet has been chasing this Oscar, and his whole awards season behavior annoys me. He just turned 30, so I do think he has time to win. I mean, DiCaprio was in his forties when he won for the first time. I do recognize, though, this mindset of “this actor is too young, award a veteran” is the same reason Al Pacino never won until Scent of a Woman, despite turning in four better-nominated performances in the 70s when he was a younger man. Chalamet could win based on his role alone, which is how I should be. I do think this race is primarily between Chalamet and DiCaprio. I would be happy if this were the film for which DiCaprio won a second Oscar. In fact, I think this is his best performance since The Wolf of Wall Street, which includes his Oscar-winning role in The Revenant. Michael B. Jordan should be happy to be nominated, and while I would love to see Ethan Hawke win one day, I don’t think it’s for Blue Moon. If it weren’t for J.K. Simmons’ astounding performance in Whiplash, I would have given Hawke the trophy for best supporting actor in 2014 for Boyhood. The only scenario in which I see Hawke winning would be if Chalamet and DiCaprio split the category, allowing Hawke a surprise victory. This would be both in recognition of his astounding performance, but also recognition of a thirty plus year career. Before the Golden Globe ceremony, DiCaprio, Chalamet, Hawke, and Jordan seemed to be locks. That fifth slot was a competition between Wagner Moura, Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams). When Edgerton failed to earn a nomination at the Actors Award (formerly the SAG awards), but Plemons did, it seemed like Edgerton was out. It’s also worth noting that Moura (and of cast from Sentimental Value) was omitted from the Actors’ Awards, too. I do believe that winning the Golden Globe cemented Moura’s fifth place. While I generally don’t care for the films of Yorgos Lanthimos, I was in awe of Plemons’ performance. I do wish he had gotten in. He is one of the great actors of his generation, and it kills me that his only Oscar-nominated performance is the most forgettable one in The Power of the Dog.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Preference: Jessie Buckley
Thoughts: I think this award is Jessie Buckley’s to lose. As Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, grieving the loss of her son, Buckley is incredible. It’s a truly stunning performance. The only person that might pose a threat is Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. Her performance is incredibly layered, and I was stressed out the entire time. They both explore a different facet of motherhood. I believe wholeheartedly, that the race is between these two actresses. Of course, I will still mention the other nominees. Renate Reinsve was good in Sentimental Value, as was Emma Stone in Bugonia. Again, my biggest peeve with Bugonia is that Emma Stone, while good, is outshone by Jesse Plemons, who did not earn recognition. The film is very much a two-hander between Stone and Plemons, and it bothers me that only one half of the act, so to speak, was nominated. While I believe she deserved the win for Lanthimos’ Poor Things, I don’t think she deserves a win here. The only nomination I did not like was Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue. Sure, she made it into the Golden Globes for Best Actress (musical or comedy), but it wasn’t until she got in at the Actors Awards that she became a credible contender. I just didn’t like the film as a whole, and the performance seemed sappy, like something you would see in a Hallmark movie. I would have preferred to see Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, where she delivered a feral, heartbreaking performance. Even Chase Infiniti in One Battle After Another would have been a better nominee, although I disagree with the decision to campaign her in the lead category. I believe if she had campaigned in the supporting category, she could have been nominated.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Preference: Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Thoughts: Skarsgard has given outstanding performances throughout his career, and he delivers a standout performance in this film; it also feels like the culmination of his career. I came close to listing Sean Penn as my preference. Col. Lockjaw is a cruel white supremacist on a mission to erase any evidence of his past misdeeds. Penn is truly a sight to behold. His performance reminds me of a slightly less evil version of Ralph Fiennes in Schindler’s List. Benicio del Toro, in the same film, plays a fun and crucial part. He is quite the opposite of Lockjaw in that the audience wants him to succeed in helping Bob. I think for del Toro, the nomination is the win. Jacob Elordi was moving as Frankenstein’s monster. I don’t remember much of the movie other than being impressed by his performance. Perhaps the biggest surprise is Delroy Lindo in Sinners. Like Skarsgard, Lindo has built a career on fine supporting-character work. This nomination for him is the win, especially since he edged out Paul Mescal (Hamnet), who seemed to be assured a spot in the race. Although he was omitted this year, I have a feeling that Mescal will earn additional nominations in the future. Considering he didn’t get in at any of the precursor awards, it’s safe to say that Lindo will remain in his seat throughout the ceremony. Despite my prediction and preference for Skarsgard, I think Penn gave the strongest performance on this list, but, as much as I hate saying this, I do believe politics plays a part in the decision. Penn is very politically active and unafraid to back down, which could upset people. Most importantly, he already has two Oscars (Mystic River and Milk). Does the Academy want to put him in that elite group of actors who have three Oscars, like Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Jack Nicholson? Probably not. I mean, Tom Hanks and Denzel Washington, often considered two of the greatest actors, each have only two Oscars.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Preference: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Thoughts: I think this award is Teyana’s to lose, but of course, the results of the Actors Awards could change that. Taylor’s performance reminds me a lot of Mahershala Ali in Moonlight. She’s only there for the first thirty minutes, but her presence is felt throughout. My preference would be Inga from Sentimental Value. I remember being in awe of her performance. I think she gives the best performance in the film (even better than Skarsgard). Amy Madigan (Weapons) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) are fine nominations. The only change I would make would be to swap Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) for Odessa A’Zion in Marty Supreme. I do like Elle Fanning as an actress, but I think she gives the weakest performance in the category and in her film. I also never thought Elle Fanning would get a nomination before Dakota, but that’s just me. I thought A’Zion, as Marty’s girlfriend, gave a standout performance. After she was included in the Actors Award lineup, I honestly thought she would be nominated. In a film like Marty Supreme, with such a star-studded cast, it does surprise me that Chalamet was the only person nominated for acting. I truthfully think A’Zion was the only other cast member worthy of a nomination, and I am thankful that I don’t have to see the phrase “Academy Award Nominee Kevin O’Leary (aka Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank).
Best Achievement in Directing
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Preference: Paul Thomas Anderson
Thoughts: As I mentioned in the Best Picture discussion, this award feels like it’s Anderson’s to lose. Maybe Ryan Coogler will creep up on him, but I think Anderson will go all the way.
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Preference: Ryan Coogler
Thoughts: Because One Battle is an adapted screenplay, this is the only above-the-line award that Sinners has a serious chance at winning. Sure, Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein (Marty Supreme) could pose a threat, as could the duo from Sentimental Value, but Coogler is still the strongest competitor. I don’t know where in the lineup It Was Just an Accident falls, but I know Blue Moon is the least competitive nomination. I’m not necessarily surprised Blue Moon got in, as it is a writer’s film. However, given the film’s popularity, I was surprised not to see Zach Cregger in this Weapons category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Preference: Paul Thomas Anderson
Thoughts: Again, I think PTA has this one in the bag. He won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay (which is not separated into adapted and original). The WGA awards have not been announced yet, but he’ll likely win that. The only film that I believe could upset would be Hamnet. It’s slim, but I think that’s the only film that has a fighting chance at taking down One Battle. I will say, I was a bit surprised by the omission of Wake Up Dead Man, the third film in the Knives Out trilogy. Because the first two got in (the first film for original and the second for adapted), I was hoping the third one would get in. It’s a bit of a bummer, but I won’t lose sleep over it.
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
Preference: KPop Demon Hunters
Thoughts: Truthfully, I have no preference. Of the nominated films, I have only seen Elio, and let’s just say it isn’t one of Pixar’s best. All fall, I’ve heard nothing from kids and animation enthusiasts about KPop Demon Hunters. It won Best Animated Feature at the Globes, and I am sure it will repeat at the Oscars.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Thoughts: This is a tough category. Between the beauty of capturing 1930s America by day, a swinging juke joint by night, a vampire battle in the dark of night, and a rising sunset, the film showcases so many beautiful shots. I don’t think it is a lock, however. Train Dreams, with its 4:3 aspect ratio, presents a stunning, simplistic slice of life depicting loggers in the early twentieth century. On the other hand, I wouldn’t rule out Frankenstein either. Guillermo del Toro’s films always have such beautiful cinematography.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Thoughts: Costume designer Ruth E. Carter is a favorite amongst the Academy, having won twice for both Black Panther films (also directed by Coogler). This time, she is trading Wakanda for the Jim Crow South. The only movie that could pose a threat is Frankenstein, with its elaborate costumes. That being said, Ruth E. Carter for Sinners is my choice.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Prediction: F1
Preference: F1
Thoughts: This is where I am starting to guess more and more, and my logic isn’t as strong. I liked F1. I was surprised when it ended up in Best Picture, but not in Editing or Sound. Those are the film’s strongest points, in my opinion.
Best International Feature Film
Prediction: The Secret Agent
Preference: Sentimental Value
Thoughts: While I liked Sentimental Value more than The Secret Agent, I have a gut feeling that the film will pull through in Best Picture and Best Actor for Wagner Moura.
Best Achievement in Casting
Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Thoughts: This is a new category for this year. I’m basing it on the idea that the award is essentially the SAG Award for Best Ensemble, but presented to the casting director. If that’s the case, I would give it to Sinners. To bring together this eclectic group of dynamic and sometimes underrepresented actors would be worthy of a win.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: Frankenstein
Preference: Frankenstein
Thoughts: Maybe Sinners, with its vampire makeup, could come close, but I think Frankenstein will win based on Jacob Elordi’s makeup alone.
Best Original Score
Prediction: Ludwig Goransson for Sinners
Preference: Ludwig Goransson
Thoughts: Having already won two Oscars for Black Panther and Oppenheimer, Goransson, I believe, is one of the finest composers of his time. I would be stunned if he didn’t win.
Best Original Song
Prediction: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Preference: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Thoughts: My pick of the song from Sinners is strictly because I liked the blues music. I know it will go to “Golden,” since it won at the Globes and everyone seems to be talking about K-pop Demon Hunters.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Thoughts: My rationale for choosing Sinners is that I was impressed by the production design. Truthfully, all of the nominees would be worthy winners. The closest competitor would be Frankenstein.
Best Animated Short Film
Prediction: Butterfly
Preference: N/A
Thoughts: I have not seen any of these films, so I am not comfortable expanding on the category further.
Best Documentary Feature
Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
Preference: N/A
Thoughts: I have not seen any of these films, so I am not comfortable further expounding on the category.
Best Documentary Short
Prediction: The Devil is Busy
Preference: N/A
Thoughts: I have not seen any of these films, so I am not comfortable further expounding on the category.
Best Live Action Short Film
Prediction: The Singers
Preference: N/A
Thoughts: I have not seen any of these films, so I am not comfortable further expounding on the category.
Best Achievement in Sound
Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Thoughts: Music and sound are so crucial in Sinners that they serve the plot. When sound enhances and serves the plot, it increases its chances of winning.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Preference: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Thoughts: Listen, I haven’t seen Jurassic World Rebirth, nor have I seen Avatar. However, the trailers I saw of Avatar looked amazing. That’s what I am basing my prediction on.
I hate to use the phrase snub, as no person is guaranteed an Oscar nomination. However, if it wasn’t clear, the biggest snub (for a lack of a better term) this year, in my opinion was Jesse Plemons in Bugonia. That character had a lot of mental health issues and Plemons played the hell out of that role. I kind of felt that he was a monster at times, but I also empathized with him. It was such a solid performance.
I feel compelled to make one last comment. It pains me to see Warner Bros. up for sale, especially after such a strong showing (30+ nominations) at this year’s ceremony. The studio doesn’t seem to be struggling financially, and they just celebrated their 100th anniversary in 2023 by producing a four-part documentary for HBO Max. I don’t see why they need to sell the studio. The only reason I can think of is pure greed. I hope that if Netflix does acquire Warner Bros., it will give the studio and its assets (including HBO Max and Turner Classic Movies) the love it deserves.
